Ontario chooses Shades of Rae or Merits of Harris
As we get closer to our provincial general election campaign finish line, Ontarians clearly are making known to all that no longer is there is any room for David Peterson or should I say Kathleen Wynne and her Ontario Liberals, I stand by my position that our provincial Grits will give or take have about half a dozen seats from their 55 majority going in and only 17 percent of the vote from their near 39 at the current. The pragmatic centre where it supposedly is today fell apart, where Kathleen thought campaigning further out into the left on spending would allow her to go back to cutting on the right in government, as Horvath tore her far leftways while Ford took a hard altright turn Wynne could not pick and choose from. Actually worse than anything David had, Kathleen might put the Ontario Liberals out to pasture a la Iggy or further into a politico bizarro world in which they do not even qualify for official status in the Ontario Legislative Assembly for next session.
With their own might as one province, Ontario today now chooses Shades of Rae or Merits of Harris, either we are heading to a 1990 or 1995 style finish to such a horrendous campaign as this one has been for all good hearted Ontarians.
I think neither prediction is pure, a Bob Rae styled New Democrat Orange Crush under Andrea Horvath seems to be getting more unlikely as the chances of a Mike Harris styled Progressive Conservative Blue Wave under Doug Ford get bigger as the days go by, unless a huge tsunami sweeps away Ford with a Harris like scandal a la Walkerton or Ipperwash within his campaign then Ontarians seem more at ease with the Ontario Tories than the New Democrats. Ford will likely gain 44 percent of the vote and 73 seats, up from roughly 35 percent and a half and 37 seats, Horvath and the New Democrats will likely gain 39 percent of the vote and 45 seats, up from around 23 percent and 21 seats, and no return for the Trilliums and no gain for the Greens as the minor fringe stay that way this next time around. So close to Harris for Ford and kind of Rae for Horvath, thanks completely to Wynne being worse than Peterson, both the Progressive Conservatives and New Democrats have their best shows ever at the expense of the worst ever campaign by the Liberals for years to come yet but perhaps a Trudeau waits in their Liberal youth wings yet.
Why a Loss is still a Wynne
Kathleen Wynne and her Ontario Liberals will lose bad, yet to whom she will lose bad is a question that only the people of the province can answer rightly, but right now I think she will be returning six or half a dozen seats give or take with 17 percent of the vote. This versus either a Bob Rae styled New Democrat Orange Crush under Andrea Horvath that will get 37 percent of the vote or more with a likely 66 seats under her belt for a slight majority, or a Mike Harris styled Progressive Conservative Blue Wave under Doug Ford that will get 43 percent of the vote or less with a likely 73 seats under his belt for a heavier majority, that will do for a quick pick of an early prediction. But how did Kathleen get caught under a barrel with Andrea and Doug doing the rolling downhill, just look at her campaign and how she thought it was no different than all the others, there is where you will find the rub.
She planned for a Patrick Brown, then expected a Christine Elliott, but finally got a Ford and that is why a loss is still a Wynne as he pulled her progressive campaign too far right for her to stretch back to her original radical left gameplan with Horvath covering the base she only knew how to play.
Tax and spending on her Great Forward Society was the whole plan with nothing else to back it up just in case, nobody expected a Tory who played to Rural and Northern Ontario issues to win their primary and stop the Toronto centric election campaign rhythm of the race for Premier to simply throw off the beat of a leftward progressive drum, tack on a personally unpopular Premier who had such a dismal polling number that kept getting worse year by year, Liberals today likely wished they had lost the last time out so not to lose everything this next time on. Clearly readying themselves simply to run on their record, this only works for one when the record they run on is solid enough to win them again with the people, however when said record in government is zero net or worse negative then most call timeout and look for other alternatives which shall happen sooner than later. The question remains which leadership candidate is less about their party and its supposed ideology and rather is more like the Liberals and their assumed position in the middle, which is what most Ontarians really want but cannot have, that leader and party will hold the mantle of government this next time out but like Rae or Harris will hold it only by the peril of their own ideological bent.
