Friday, March 01, 2019

Estonia Maintains the Middle Power between European Union and United Russia

If the federal parliamentary elections in Estonia for the 101 seat Riigikogu were not called in early March, and rather during the Fall season of that year, I believe the results from 2015 vote would have been much closer to what shall happen early March 2019, as it was, pro free market Eesti Reformierakond Erakond or Reform led by Taavi Roivas and his main issue of job creation, dropped to 30 seats or 27.7% vote from 33 seats or 28.6% vote for a 0.9% swing drop, yet made government, pro welfare state Eesti Keskerakond Erakond or Centre led by Edgar Savisaar and his main issue of pension conservation, jumped to 27 sears or 24.8% vote from 26 seats or 23.3% vote for a 1.5% swing jump, to be the opposition, socialist Eesti Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond or Social Democrats led by Sven Mikser dropped to 15 seats or 15.2% vote from 19 seats or 17.1% vote for a 1.9% swing drop, to be third party. Remaining finishers were populist conservative Isamaa or Pro Patria and Res Publica Union led by Urmas Reinsalu in fourth dropping from 23 seats or 20.5% vote to 14 seats or 13.7% vote for a 6.8% swing drop, pro democratic reform Eesti Vabaerakond Erakond or Free led by Andres Herkel in fifth was founded in 2014 thus gained 8 seats or 8.7% vote, and nationalist conservative Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond or Conservative People's led by Mart Helme in sixth jumping from 0 seats or 2.1% vote to 7 seats or 8.1%% vote for a 6.0% swing jump. Lots of changes were to be expected, externally with presidential change in America from a more socialist liberal Obama to a more populist conservative Trump but especially after the alt right conservative, nationalist, and populist wave that hit Europe from Russia to Britain, internally add on top Prime Minister Roivas losing a no confidence motion, refusing to resign with support from just his own party, only to give way after the majority of Riigikogu removed him and was replaced with a ethnic Russian endorsed Center Party chairman Juri Ratas to replace the leadership of Savisaar, where Roivas a year later would be hit with a harassment scandal on a trade mission in Malaysia and year after the daughter of former Reform Prime Minister Siim Kallas Kaja Kallas took over leadership of Reform charged with changing the federal tax system being her main issue. Thus, I figure the following to be how these and other changes explained later will be the final result, Reform led by Kallas, shall win 33 seats or 29% vote from 30 seats or 27.7% vote for a 1.3% swing jump, to make the government, Centre led by Ratas, shall win 25 seats or 22% vote from 27 seats or 24.8% vote for a 2.8% swing drop, to be the opposition, Conservative People's led by Helme, shall win 21 seats or 19% vote from 7 seats or 8.1% vote for a 10.9% swing jump, to place third. Pro Patria and Res Publica led by Helir Valdor Seeder, shall win 15 seats or 15% vote to 14 seats or 13.7% vote for a 1.3% swing jump, to place fourth, Social Democrats led by Jevgeni Ossinovski, shall win 6 seats or 6% vote from 15 seats or 15.2% vote for a 9.2% swing drop, to place fifth. Free led by Kaul Nurm, shall win 5 seat or 5% vote from 8 seats or 8.7% vote for a 3.7% swing drop, to place sixth and the other fringe parties finishing out with the remaining votes for 4%.

Just as the possibility of gaining a full 51 majority is virtually impossible with a pizza unicameral parliament where parties as diverse from democratic socialist to national populist from economic liberal to social conservative represent the relatively culturally homogenous populace, so it represents a rainbow of ideas and thoughts from radical to moderate which freely and democratically fight, debate, and vote through compromise towards agreement on how to make government for its people work, thus Estonia maintains the middle power between European Union and United Russia, or in other words the geopolitical solution to a growing stalemate, which is gradually increasing towards another global economic slowdown and eventual restart of a cold war if not careful.

As the previous election had been an almost decade long replacement of Reformers Andrus Ansip with Taavi Roivas as Prime Minister while continuing support for austerity policies, which has made Estonia the crown jewel of the Eurozone with lowest debt level of any member nation state yet has left both rural communities and ethnic Russians behind, the change in coalition for Reform between the populist conservative Isamaa and Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond and socialist liberal Eesti Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond showed the strength in the more cosmopolitan Estonian Reform over the more ethnically Russian Centre to work along with the small polar opposites from the middle as Kallas wrestled Ratas for that power, while also taking away strength from other free market friendly parties such as the seasoned Eesti Vabaerakond Erakond and fledgling Eesti Kakssada Erakond which should both either barely remain in parliament and just miss getting in respectively, where Estonians seems to becoming more pro free market economically and socially conservative with anti European principles and policies towards populism and further away from pro welfare state economically and socially liberal with pro European principles and policies of socialism as the 25 percent of the population this former Soviet republic which is ethnic Russians begin to polarize. However a refusal to work together building a right wing populist grand coalition on the centre right built upon the values of Estonian nationalism, Christian democracy, national conservatism, democratic reform, and Euroscepticism with its opposition of immigration, multiculturalism, and globalization that speaks to alienated rural Estonians in the hinterlands will not split the vote, but continue to keep Isamaa and Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond out as either the government or opposition for another term, perhaps the real Blue Awakening or Sinine Aratus is to find out how both of these groups can start working along with one another in an interparliamentary coalition legislatively towards eventually cooperating as an extraparliamentary alliance electorally, instead of paying for supporting coalitions with the others, and not themselves. Finally, watching as such Baltic and Eastern European beacons of light for democracy and freedom as the EU and NATO member Estonia advance further in economic, cultural, and political development beyond even that of established world powers and its elite hegemony, one has to wonder how when a small Northern European nation of just over a million on land with a thousand and a half islands on lakes, ancient forests, and rocky beaches that border the Baltic Sea and Gulf of Finland with its castles, churches, and countryside hilltop fortresses whose strength and stubbornness represent the ironwilled defenses of the Estonian people against progressive changes that injure orthodox tradition which has carried them forward onward, for those who presently forget the epics of the past will realize sooner than later they have no history nor any future.

Friday, February 22, 2019

From Beaver River to Burnaby South a Return to Reform

Despite the Leader of the Opposing Third Party running in this largely Chinese-Canadian contingent riding of Burnaby South where the safe bet would be a return to another Democratic Socialist like the former NewDemo MP and current Mayor of Vancouver Kennedy Stewart it looks to replace with federal New Democratic Party leader and candidate Jagmeet Singh, however the People's Party of Canada has been campaigning hard behind its candidate Laura-Lynn Tyler-Thompson, running along in the byelection are Liberal Party candidate Richard Lee who quickly replaced Karen Wang, Conservative Party candidate Jay Shin, and while the Green Party did not run but their former provincial candidate Valentine Wu is running independently along with Terry Grimwood amongst the fringe. Usually with byelections one expects the normal 75,950 valid total eligible to 46,162 valid total voters from the 2015 general election to drop by around half, more or less around 23,081 should be par, with the top issue of the byelection being the Montréal based Surveyor Nenniger Chênevert-Lalonde Valois International Limited engineering, procurement, and construction services company scandal Trudeau Liberals has been the biggest talk on the street. The Twenty Fifth of February will be a tough one to call, however the People's Party Tyler-Thompson should still gain 30% and win the seat if she can be the protest vote, Singh and the Neodemos place second with 26 percent of the vote, Lee and the Grits take up third with 21 in percentage, as Shin and the Tories fights for fourth at 16% and from the fringe Wu finishes with fifth at 7% of the vote from unaffiliated Greens and Grimwood sixth with less than 1% vote for the Independents.

Burnaby South becomes Beaver River and a return to Reform for the People's Party of Canada, Laura-Lynn Tyler-Thompson in many different ways replicates a social conservative first Deborah Grey to Maxime Bernier's version of a fiscal conservative first Preston Manning, but can they grow to make their populist movement more than just a moral conservative alternative in Canada by October or come up short to allow the socialists a leader to prop up the current welfare state governmental regime?

Like Kathleen Wynne and the Ontario Liberals, the Justin Trudeau Liberals federally continue to intervene and institute their own rules just to anger those Tory premiers across the land, which should peak in their power once the pipeline politics and new National Energy Program of Trudeau elect Jason Kenney to office in AlbertaHowever, as the former Reform to Alliance to Conservative party goes back to being like the old Progressive Conservatives, Tory leader Andrew Scheer should have learnt here is principled grassroots politics trumps pragmatic astroturfed politics, one cannot fix or specially endorse political race for nomination primaries or general election campaigns for the gain of your own agenda especially if that agenda is diametrically opposed to one espoused by the general membership you are supposed to be leading, nothing wrong in being different but completely remaking and doing over the whole program so it no longer can recognized ideologically by its followers throws ones leadership into question at best and worst chaos and calamity in a time you need to create solidity and stability. The brand new populist movement Bernier now leads proves that the political elite and the main stream media industrial complex establishment still think not just that only they know best, as recently shown in the Trump Clinton United States Presidential Election where political talking heads, pundits, and pollsters got it wrong over and over again, but they even afterwards still refuse to listen, understand, and begin getting the message that we the people want to say to its government and societal institutions.

Wednesday, February 20, 2019

Orange Crushed by the Red Machine in Outremont

Despite the cries of the former Opposition Leader who just vacated representing the riding of Outremont, former NeoDemo leader and MP Tom Mulcair calls for the head of federal New Democratic Party leader and candidate Jagmeet Singh do not equate to his vying to become the next leader of the Green Party, but rather a Liberal replacing his NeoDemo seat as the New Democratic candidate Julia Sànchez guns it hard against the Liberal candidate Rachel Bendayan. Running along in the byelection with third being a fight between the Green Party candidate Daniel Green and Bloc Québécois candidate Michel Duchesne, fifth will be a battle royale between the Conservative Party candidate Jasmine Louras and People's Party of Canada candidate James Seale with the Independent being William BarrettUsually with byelections one expects the normal 70,559 valid total eligible to 44,045 valid total voters from the 2015 general election to drop by around half, more or less around 22,022 should be par, with the top issue of the byelection being the Montréal based Surveyor Nenniger Chênevert-Lalonde Valois International Limited engineering, procurement, and construction services company scandal Trudeau Liberals has been the biggest talk on the street. The Twenty Fifth of February will be a tough one to call, however Bendayan and the Grits should still gain 45% and win the seat, Sànchez and the Neodemos place second with 25 percent of the vote, Duchesne and the Bloc take up third with 12 in percentage with Green and the Greens fight for fourth at 9%, as Louras and the Tories finishes with fifth at 5 percent and Seale and the People's seals up sixth at 3% or more while from the fringe William Barrett takes less than 1% of the vote for Independent.

As the Orange Crushed by the Red Machine in Outremont brings us back to the old Martinite Jean Lapierre versus Chretienite Martin Cauchon 1993-2006 era battles of old which go back to leadership rivalries such as Paul Martin versus Jean Chrétien, Chrétien versus John Turner, and Turner took on Pierre Trudeau, does the Liberals now have a new AdScam Sponsorgate scandal with the LavScam SNC-LaValIn affair, with no proper opposition from anyone in the House it would seem Prime Minister Trudeau has no cause to once and for all end the democratic deficit which led a direct line from that old fiasco under the old regime to the new fiasco under the new regime Jody Wilson-Raybould has now uncovered?

Like Kathleen Wynne and the Ontario Liberals, the Justin Trudeau Liberals federally continue to intervene and institute their own rules just to anger those Tory premiers across the land, which should peak in their power once the pipeline politics and new National Energy Program of Trudeau elect Jason Kenney to office in AlbertaHowever, as the former Reform to Alliance to Conservative party goes back to being like the old Progressive Conservatives, Tory leader Andrew Scheer should have learnt here is principled grassroots politics trumps pragmatic astroturfed politics, one cannot fix or specially endorse political race for nomination primaries or general election campaigns for the gain of your own agenda especially if that agenda is diametrically opposed to one espoused by the general membership you are supposed to be leading, nothing wrong in being different but completely remaking and doing over the whole program so it no longer can recognized ideologically by its followers throws ones leadership into question at best and worst chaos and calamity in a time you need to create solidity and stability. The brand new populist movement Bernier now leads proves that the political elite and the main stream media industrial complex establishment still think not just that only they know best, as recently shown in the Trump Clinton United States Presidential Election where political talking heads, pundits, and pollsters got it wrong over and over again, but they even afterwards still refuse to listen, understand, and begin getting the message that we the people want to say to its government and societal institutions.

Monday, February 18, 2019

York-Simcoe feels real true Blue

Being a High Tory Conservative riding all but two terms of Liberalism York-Simcoe would be a safe bet for a return to another Tory like the former Conservative MP Peter Van Loan it looks to replace with federal Conservative Party candidate Scot Davidson, yet the federal Liberal candidate Shaun Tanaka has been running since the provincial for the Grits, running along in the byelection are federal New Democratic Party candidate Jessa McLean, the Green Party candidate Mathew Lund, with Progressive Canadian Dorian Baxter, People's Party of Canada Robert GeurtsLibertarian Keith Komar, National Citizens Alliance Adam Suhr, and perennial Pauper John Turmel amongst the fringe. Usually with byelections one expects the normal 75,570 valid total eligible to 48,111 valid total voters from the 2015 general election to drop by around half, more or less around 24,055 should be par, with the top issue of the byelection being the Montréal based Surveyor Nenniger Chênevert-Lalonde Valois International Limited engineering, procurement, and construction services company scandal Trudeau Liberals has been the biggest talk on the street. The Twenty Fifth of February will be easy to see, however Davidson and the Tories likely gain 47% and win the seat, Tanaka and the Grits place second with 33 percent of the vote, McLean and the Neodemos take up third with 9 in percentage, as Lund and the Greens finish with fourth at less than 4%, while Progressive Canadian candidate Baxter fight for fifth starts with 3% or more and Geurts and the People's slide into sixth with 3% or less as this is High Tory country of Mulroneyite Progressive Canadian Sinclair Stevens not Libertarian Nationalist Reform and from the fringe I actually think the best of the rest goes as follows Libertarian Komar sixth, National Citizens Alliance Adam Suhr seventh, and Pauper Turmel eighth.

As York-Simcoe feels real true Blue especially with a Ford Nation Tory fuelled win provincially behind them, does this mean Trudeau will use this provincial Conservative opposition in Toronto to fuel a federal Liberal opposition in Ottawa leaving Scheer down and out then gone like the Wynne, if so then are we not back to all the same old status quo political tricks of the past both Doug and Justin promised the people they would not play?

Like Kathleen Wynne and the Ontario Liberals, the Justin Trudeau Liberals federally continue to intervene and institute their own rules just to anger those Tory premiers across the land, which should peak in their power once the pipeline politics and new National Energy Program of Trudeau elect Jason Kenney to office in AlbertaHowever, as the former Reform to Alliance to Conservative party goes back to being like the old Progressive Conservatives, Tory leader Andrew Scheer should have learnt here is principled grassroots politics trumps pragmatic astroturfed politics, one cannot fix or specially endorse political race for nomination primaries or general election campaigns for the gain of your own agenda especially if that agenda is diametrically opposed to one espoused by the general membership you are supposed to be leading, nothing wrong in being different but completely remaking and doing over the whole program so it no longer can recognized ideologically by its followers throws ones leadership into question at best and worst chaos and calamity in a time you need to create solidity and stability. The brand new populist movement Bernier now leads proves that the political elite and the main stream media industrial complex establishment still think not just that only they know best, as recently shown in the Trump Clinton United States Presidential Election where political talking heads, pundits, and pollsters got it wrong over and over again, but they even afterwards still refuse to listen, understand, and begin getting the message that we the people want to say to its government and societal institutions.

Wednesday, November 21, 2018

Jagmeet could find justice against petty Justin in Brampton

Trudeau slowly but surely breaks every single promise he made before and after his election as the Canadian Prime Minister, except those specific loaded promises that fit his narrow ideological agenda and backroom political strategy, up there is treating his Opposition inside and outside the House of Commons with civility, integrity, and respect which Justin has conveniently forgot all about now that he sits on the federal throne. Taking his sweet time calling a batch of byelections within a year of the next federal general election is also the opposite of any kind of electoral reform I have ever heard of, a quasi broken election promise as you had promised to deliver not just fairer elections but also fairer voting in them, as your first as the Prime Minister of Canada was supposed to be the last using first past the post electoral system. I did not expect this promise to be his first broken not did I expect his reconciliations of truth just to simply be contradictions of lies, so imagine my not so shocked surprise to hear that after New Democratic leader Jagmeet Singh has already committed to running and is nominated to run in the Burnaby South byelection to be held early February, that all of a sudden the Liberal MP for Brampton East has decided to call it quits.

For those following the drama from home, this Brampton East riding was created from Bramalea—Gore—Malton and Brampton—Springdale and was once represented by Singh when he was the provincial NDP deputy leader, where he last beat the Liberals by 11% and 6,000 votes approximately in the provincial election previous to our last one.

With other byelections taking half a year to be held, like Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes to be held early December, with others across the country like Outremont, Saint-Leonard–Saint-Michel, Nanaimo-Ladysmith, and York-Simcoe yet to be held if even they will be with the upcoming federal general coming up quick, it has become very obvious Trudeau is playing partisan political games which he promised he would never play. Those would be the same old status quo games he attacked when played by his predecessor Harper, so I think especially if Justin is going to run a Liberal against the New Democratic leader in Burnaby South to make a forced play at third, Jagmeet should think long and hard about throwing a change up and being honest with his constituents to say he would rather go back and represent his natural home riding of Brampton East. I am sure everyone will understand after all, if Justin can make all these great promises and hold to none of them such as electoral reform, why then should Jagmeet be held to a less meaningful one especially when played within a larger and more dangerous political game.

Friday, November 02, 2018

Green becomes the new Red in Germany

The Greens of the original West Germany 1979 and the East German Alliance 90 founded during the 1989–1990 Revolution have been very radical alternative political trailblazers globally in all things ecological and environmental since the 1980s, a governing opposition political movement made up of regular everyday folk just frustrated by mainstream elitist politics, historically the first Green members of the Bundestag entered in 1983 led by the sneaker without a suit and tie wearing Joschka Fischer sworn in as environment minister in the Social Democratic state government of Hesse in 1985 to 1987 where he would eventually rise from Frankfurt am Main to go to Berlin to enter the SDP cabinet of Chancellor Gerhard Schroder from 1998 to 2005 serving as Foreign Minister and as Vice Chancellor of Germany for the Socialists, more than an actual political protest party it views itself as an antiestablishment activist agenda via a grassroots democratic movement for issues long ignored as unimportant by elitist politicians such as electoral representation like proportional representation and against things like American nuclear warhead missiles and the global nuclear arms race of the superpowers as Neunundneunzig Luftballons that Nena of Neue Deutsche Welle fame had warned us about in 1984 from the peaceful human chain protests in the Hofgarten public gardens of Bonn towards a blue sky and over the Berlin Wall at the height of the Cold War.

Such a brand new expressive political era with such wild rebel youth style quickly attracted older veteran radicals from the 1968 European student protest movement, admirers of a punk subculture whose conditions were created by a status quo combination of East German Communism and West German Christian Democracy which had been subverted by Baader Meinhof Group via the Red Army Faction crisis of 1977 for short awhile, not until it would hit its height with the fall of the Wall in Autumn 1989 could the Green movement in Germany would they its people finally gain recognition as more than just an unconventional movement but a truly grassroots citizenry as Green becomes the new Red in Germany.

Coalition government and those key issues mainstreaming across the political spectrum soon brought the Greens into working along with the conservative Christian Democrats as Schroder slowly turned into a wind power friendly former environment minister Angela Merkel, by 2011 both climate change and the Fukushima nuclear disaster would create an outspoken opponent of nuclear energy and carbon free electricity enemy of the CDU, so naturally that year the Greens got its first state majority coalition government winning 24.1% and 36 seats with traditionally conservative voters in the state of Baden-Wurttemberg with Winfried Kretschmann in Stuttgart. This event kickstarted the slow takeover of conservatism with hopes of forming a grand coalition government with traditionally conservative CDU and the classically liberal FDP, those were quickly dashed after the 2017 federal general election as irreconcilable differences led to a fourth place finish with the resignation of three party leaders within its movement, leaving first generation socialists aged as former jobless dropout hippies to become well educated high earning urbanite professionals with a strong religious belief in the consensus held benefits of multiculturalism to see their political values change to and thus have left the union and labour friendly SDP for the refugee and immigration friendly Greens. Both state election victories Bavarian 17.6% and 38 seats in Munich and Hessian 19.8% and 29 seats in Frankfurt am Main in mid to late October for the Greens have witnessed the second place steady replacement of red socialism with green environmentalism which perhaps is yet another Wind of Change just as the Scorpions sang is the same old song being sung by those seeking another choice as yet another decade soon turns.

Monday, September 24, 2018

Populism comes to Québec as Legault's Coalisés replace Couillard's Liberaux

The provincial general election next door sees its campaign finish line, though Québécois remain looking for change despite moving closer to seeing it come from the left winged collective over the right winged individual in the last couple days I stand by my position that Philippe Couillard's Liberaux will give or take have about 34 seats from their 68 seat majority governing party status going in and 25 percent of the vote from their near 41 and a half at the current as the government while François Legault's will give or take have about 73 seats from their 21 seat third party status going in and 39 percent of the vote from their near 41 and a half at the current. Though originally before I made the final projection I felt the Liberals and Parti would be replaced, I realized that liberalism was too strong to just disappear and socialism and separatism was too weak to let it happen, so I believe again that both the Solidarités of cospokespeople Manon Massé and Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois plus Gaétan Châteauneuf and the Péquistes of Jean-François Lisée will bottom out at will likely gain 17 percent of the vote and 9 seats, up from roughly 7 percent and a half and 3 seats for the socialists, and will likely gain 13 percent of the vote and 9 seats, down from roughly 25 percent and a half and 28 seat opposition party status for the separatists, respectively with the minor party fringe getting under 5 percent with no seats.

So, after years of liberalism replacing conservatism than recently socialism replacing separatism in the province, finally populism comes to Québec as Legault's Coalisés replace Couillard's Liberaux giving Canada a fourth ideology to break apart the hegemony created previously by those big three ideologies traditionally found in Canada.

Populism was losing its traction under Legault, if Maxime Bernier's People's Party of Canada federally had not come to its rescue to make an impotent horse virile again, thus Québec gives its consent through protest to power over to its populists as the largest experiment since Saskatchewan and Alberta before it with Social Credit to do so. The Liberals remain under Couillard to oppose it and the Coalition Avenir Québec who dare to present it, preserving the establishment and status quo for Ottawa, while the Socialists in the Québec Solidaire and Separatists in the Parti Québécois figure themselves out before attempting to knock off the classical and modern liberal parties ahead of them. The rest of Canada needs to follow the leaders of this Confederation, Alberta is no longer the cutting edge with Saskatchewan first and now Québec replacing Wild Rose Country and next year they will need to find their populist radically centred political hearts that neither go right winged conservative nor left winged liberal, but rather something that most people can agree in unity with instead of further polarizing by disagreement in division.