Friday, September 22, 2017

Will the Minority that Merkel forms be Nationalist or Socialist?

Angela Merkel will continue to be the German Chancellor after the federal election of the 19th Bundestag Sunday night, however with an estimated higher turnout projected and a surge from sixth to second of the populist and nationalist Alternative for Germany as the past opposition party of the Social Democrats drops down, the Christian Democrats can safely believe they will go from less than half the vote to a little more than one third from 41 and 238 seats to 35 for 241 seats while the Social Democrats lose about five points from 25 and 193 seats to 20 for 149 seats thus allowing the Alternative to go from less than five points with zero seats to 17 for 131 seats. So, as you can see both the former opposition Social Democrats and the so to be opposition Alternative for Germany will be almost equal in percentage of votes and seats in the Bundestag with Merkel and the Christian Democrats falling and failing to not only gain a majority, but gain enough vote and seats in this projected minority to be a strong partner in any kind of government without a kingmaker looking over their shoulder likely in the form of the SDP or AFG. Yet, the CDU and CSU union made it clear in this election they would not cede to either the far left to centre demands to end the coordinated social market economic miracle and expand the welfare state bureaucracy while rejecting the far right to centre demands to oppose to Islam and open door refugee immigration via reasonable accommodation and stop financial support and loss of national sovereignty to the European Union via continental integration.

For the first time during the seventeen year Merkel era, German Christian Democrats must now decide which part of their balanced centrist grand coalition program gets tilted over towards, do they move rightward towards the Nationalists or leftward towards the Socialists?

Germany might see neither of these in that Merkel nor the CDU and CSU union wish to lose their fiscally conservative and socially progressive agenda for the sake of holding grand power, rather cobbling together minor concessions with pro EU fringe parties like the classically liberal Free Democrats and environmentally responsible Greens trading give or take 150 seats they gain for major cabinet posts seems to be the more realistic path forward to stable governance as they come together with give or take 390 seats in a Bundestag of 630. With the math now aside, the real question is does Merkel start emphasizing real Christian Democratic third way politics in the radical centrist spirit of Konrad Adenauer and its traditional values of life, liberty, and leadership both strong and solid which could easily counter the grassroots democratic populism of the AFG and the labour union cries of economic inequality coming from the SDP along with a Soziale Marktwirtschaft Wirtschaftswunder solution for the FDP and environmental free enterprise marketeering solution for the BDG, while still leaving the open centrist position to get back to a more principled conservative right to centre as we move from her fourth to fifth term. Whether to choose identity or ideology, both Christian Democracy and Merkel need to figure out who they are now before their small timeframe of power to make change disappears into the infinity of space and beyond, leaving a very confused Germany that knows less of what it stands for after her chancellorship than even before it.

Monday, July 31, 2017

Why the Conservatives in Ontario cannot win inside and outside their party

And here in Ontario instead of simply having a smaller, less intrusive and interventionist, government that allows people to live and let live while eliminating job killing regulations, one that makes life more affordable for a working middle class drowning in the deficit and debt while the rising cost of living, housing, food, taxes, on top of those skyrocketing hydro rates taking us further from an excellent quality of life citizens expect, we have a government that refuses to just focus on just managing governmental taxes, services, and spending properly, one that carefully supports reliable healthcare and quality education that links us to better job creation and stronger economic development, that makes hydro more affordable, jobs more plentiful, and with more opportunity for everyone here everyday in everyway on the matters that impact them directly by the decisions made by a government which simply put needs to just get out of the way of the business of its citizens. This is a dangerous set of policy idea framework politically that none of the Big Three parties at Queen's Park are neither actively supporting of nor committing towards making happen, as we move further into 21st Century and closer to a Vision 2020 for Ontario that blindly will be missed by the supposed leadership we have, mainly because this would reduce the size of the bureaucratic swamp we have created full of monsters we must starve of the never ending tax dollar it feeds upon to live and ever making governmental waste it creates as its only byproduct in life. Being a grassroots political analyst, consultant, and strategist, I know just what seems to be rankling for the grassroots rank and file membership of all the Big Three provincial political parties about the leadership that is lacking in their ideological political vehicle of choice at Queen's Park in Toronto, at the current right now as we speak all three inherently have an elitist disconnect with between each other so wide a chasm to cross allowing for disillusioned and disgruntled Kathleen Wynne led Ontario Liberal Party, Patrick Brown led Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario, and Andrea Horwath led Ontario New Democratic Party members to look abroad, either going fringe, independent, or even just tiring off the same old status quo political situation and staying home to rest from the rust.

Brown and the Ontario Progressive Conservatives have an extra problem entirely different than both the Wynne and the Ontario Liberals or Andrea and the Ontario New Democrats, unlike both ladies and their members, Brown and the Ontario Tories more times than not do not see eye to eye on not just intellectual policy but also emotional personality, which at least the other two party leaders seem to jive together in somewhat of a coherent political beat from governance to campaign for a memorable partisan rhythm, Brown and provincial conservatives at that obligatory point of a critical level do not jive in Ontario.

Pat, and his Ontario PC leadership style and team, by apparently alleged actions such as those seen at the primary nomination level in electoral district ridings where undemocratic selection by the leader not democratic election of candidates of record by the membership has led to seeing fringe splinter parties from the grassroots popping up alround Patrick and the Ontario Tories, inspired by the likes of Preston Manning and the Reform Party of Canada exactly 30 years ago this October, all united on a fiscally conservative platform they see lacking in a Brown led Tory party that supports a carbon tax, but divided in areas in which their special interest group supported leadership have biased them closer to, where two special interest groups being the civil libertarian Ontario Landowners Association and socially conservative Campaign Life Coalition who previously endorsed Brown and the Ontario PCs now back the Ontario Trillium and Ontario Alliance parties along with other various grassroots factions within the small c conservative movement without a big C Conservative Party at the provincial level such as the constitutional nationalist, environmental conservationist, democratic reformer, or regional sovereignist out in the wilderness now wondering far and wide for their own. Quite obvious now, Brown never believed in the diverse, tolerant, and inclusive big tent party Patrick originally ran his leadership race and campaign on, along with many other promises Brown made to all those special interest groups for their endorsement, who all of which have now turned against him and created fringe splinter parties to siphon off as many votes as they can with their single issue causes, instead of apologizing for causing splits in the traditional conservative fabric, Patrick has decided to sew a whole different colour of patchwork to create a modern conservative flag none of these groups even dare ever recognize. Such a gamble for a neophyte leader who spent his whole political career on Parliament Hill in Ottawa amongst the other backbenchers, from a principled conservative who supported and voted for the most socially conservative legislation one could imagine as part of Team Stephen Harper to becoming such a pragmatic conservative who talked and walked a version of conservatism provincially even the most fiscally conservative supporter does not identify as anything close to such the conservative entity they voted for only two years ago federally, that is the kind of reverse dogwhistled cognitive dissonance Brown, an Opposition Leader pollsters say is still largely unknown substance can ill afford with a general election less than a year to go until his next race.

Wednesday, May 31, 2017

Soo will definitely go Blue as the Ontario Tories take Sault Ste. Marie

Just as the Province of Ontario dislike Kathleen Wynne, the City of Sault Ste. Marie dislike Debbie Amaroso, with similar reasons being why Christian Provenzano is the Mayor now and Charles Sousa should be the Premier, but as former Liberal MPP David Orazietti looked to be replaced by Amaroso, a very strong Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario candidate there in Ross Romano, running along with him in the byelection are Ontario New Democratic Party candidate Joe Krmpotich, and the Green Party candidate Kara Flannigan, leading fringe with perennial Pauper John Turmel, Libertarian Gene Balfour, None of the Above Noneof Zabove, yet without a candidate from the Trillium Party candidate despite becoming the fourth party in Queens Park just last week amongst the fringe. Over half the general election vote makes up byelections, top issue for this byelection being the leadership of the Wynne Liberals and whether the Soo trusted it or wanted change has been the biggest talk on the street. The First of June seems more easy than most to call, as the Ontario Tories despite a hiccup losing a caucus member and under a dark cloud over talk of fixed nomination races still have the edge over the government of the day, so Romano will likely gain 40% and win the seat, this changes from third to first thus third becomes second being Krmpotich and the Neodemos place second with 30 percent of the vote, Amaroso and the Grits take up third with 20 in percentage, as Flannigan and the Greens finish with fourth at more or less than 2% for party funding, from the fringe I actually think the fight for fifth gathering less than 1% of the vote starts with the battle of the high profile odd names with None of the Above Zabove will get sixth and the Pauper Turmel seventh, while Libertarian Balfour ends out in eighth.

Sault Ste. Marie gives the Ontario Tories a foothold in the North to call their own, without this riding going into the general election next year it would be hard to believe they would even have a chance unseating the Grits from their powerbase in Toronto, as the Ontario Liberals will now have to divide its preelection spending not just in their Big City but also the Great White North.

A very old and tired message was flogged again by loyalists of Kathleen Wynne and the Ontario Liberals as their political team of Queens Park insiders tried all their very best to scare the votes out from the voters of the Soo, but it backfired as the ageist threats of not having experience at their cabinet table levelled by Amaroso towards Romano came back like a boomerang across the community, giving Progressive Conservative leader Patrick Brown and his party a boost from the byelection protest vote. Andrea Horwath and her Ontario New Democrats on their other hand must be feeling quite the opposite, being the former default vote for the people of Sault Ste. Marie being a riding for unionized labour, heavy metal, hard rock, and city of steel and iron, if they cannot win or even compete to win in such a region as this, any party has a chance to change the position of the current third party at Queens Park which opens up the opposition for the first time in decades. The government party is being protested again but not heavily enough right now, we have to wait under year to see just how much the present opposition parties which break from the Legislature and those outside the House in the future can gain in the next twelve months to see where exactly the Soo and the rest of you across the province are then.

Friday, May 26, 2017

Conservatives will likely stay Harperite Light with Andrew Scheer

Tons of politicos from all different colours and parties have been asking me what are my thoughts on the federal Conservative Party of Canada leadership race for 2017 and who do I think is going to win it all, pretty hard question to answer when this vote is not even a pure one member one vote styled rather equally weighted by electoral district riding 100 points allocated per. Thus in order to win the leadership race, a candidate had to receive at least 16,901 points being a pure majority of the points gather from the ranked ballot one member one vote basis, so again did not make the guesstimation of the occasion any more easier to get done. But then after striking out Kevin Oleary and then realizing we had to leave him in as he was on the ballot, I went on to add the next lucky thirteen as they appeared on the ballot being Chris Alexander, Maxime Bernier, Steven Blaney, Michael Chong, Kellie Leitch, Pierre Lemieux, Deepak Obhrai, Erin Otoole, Rick Peterson, Lisa Raitt, Andrew Saxton, Andrew Scheer, and Brad Trost, all of whom I will have now heard both at the debate back home in Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound and there at the Toronto Congress Centre in Toronto.

Three major factors become obviously in play throughout the affair, first was whether the federal party wanted to run away from the shadow of their former leader and Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper or emulate him once more which allowed for minor division between Progressive East and Reformed West members and their candidates, second was the new ideology going to remain similar being a balance carefully between fiscal and social conservatism with democratic reform and civil libertarian ideals mixed within or was the populist altright message against political correctness and forced immigration going to be another pillar within that mix, and third was major campaign issues with created splits and crisis such as supply management and traditional marriage created temporary voting blocs for those single issue voters which artificially increased and decreased the numbers for certain teams in the race.

Though Kevin Oleary was on the ballot, I knew he would come out below as he suspended his campaign the other 13 remaining leadership candidates who I list in order lowest to highest to be in the first round were Rick Peterson thirteenth at 0.1%, Andrew Saxton twelfth at 0.2%, Chris Alexander eleventh at 0.3%, Steven Blaney tenth at 0.3%, Deepak Obhrai ninth at 0.5%, Lisa Raitt eighth at 1.5%, Kellie Leitch seventh at 6.5%, Brad Trost sixth at 9%, Erin Otoole fifth at 11%, Pierre Lemieux fourth at 12%, Michael Chong third at 15%, Maxime Bernier second at 19%, and Andrew Scheer first at 25%. Let me explain them all now starting with Peterson to Obhrai as they were all fringe outback players adding up to 1%, Raitt carried some weight for double and a half of that, Leitch still had a huge Trumpesque altright following her around for more than half a decade in percentage, Trost carries that heavy socon burden that comes with about a decade percentage in support, Otoole just for being True Blue Ontario Tory get over a decade in percentage, Lemieux takes the flag, family, and faith crowd for over a decade in percentage too, Chong collects every Progressive Eastern vote available from Ontario to the Atlantic for a decade and a half percent, Bernier too picks up every single civil libertarian vote across the nation for almost two decade percent, and finally Scheer being Harper like as Harper Light from all True Blue Tories get two decades and a half percent from across the nation to make this vote go all the way to about 12. Knock off the last six candidates, Raitt vote goes to Chong for 16.5%+, Leitch vote goes to Bernier for 25.5%+, Trost vote goes to Scheer for 34%+, Otoole vote goes to Bernier for 36.5%+, Lemieux vote goes to Scheer for 46%+, Chong vote goes to Bernier for 51.5+, so theoretically Bernier edges out votes from Scheer but obviously 46 plus 51.5 does not make 100 and I think we are going to see a twelve round plus vote ending in between 45 and 52 for both that could very well become a 50.1% to 49.9% race between Scheer and Bernier with Chong, Lemieux, and Otoole being the kingmakers in the end of this shootout to replace Harper.

Friday, February 03, 2017

Burning fat to build muscle with Tabata cardio boxing as Mama said knock it out

Just last year, a good pal of mine I trained awhile back asked me to give him a health intervention, as he was wading back into the overindulgent excesses of our own consumptive life in this Western world we all live in where Twinkies are seemingly the king and cabbage is supposedly for the poor. I reminded him of the way it got done in the past on campus at Redeemer by twinning both high intensity interval sprint and low intensity steady state cardio, all done in a simple 29 to 49 minute boxing workout, using the Tabata protocol as was discovered by Japanese scientist Dr. Izumi Tabata and his team of researchers from the National Institute of Fitness and Sports in Tokyo. Lo and behold, almost one year later where he started with a beginner 2:1x7 set and eventually increasing to a master  3:1x12 set, not only did he knock off his rolling beer keg belly fat but indeed there sat a set of six pack abdominals that absolutely set me off my head for a bit as it was astonishing how much time and effort he actually took making it happen.

Burning fat to build muscle, with Tabata cardio boxing, as Mama said knock it out by keeping in mind that 2:1 ratio for work to rest being 2 minutes working and 1 minute resting and then x7 repetitions of that set as the starting key to burning the fat off with an eventual increase to 3:1x12 ratio bring 3 minutes working and 1 minute resting then repeating it 12 times though rest at the next level should be replaced with skipping rope jumping and then a more elite level would add weights to keep the beat and the visceral adipose fat off for life with only lean body mass and muscle to show for it.

Currently,  I am tutoring another set of folk on how to do this so I just thought I would take some time and share the basics of the workout online here on my weblog since tis Fitness Friday, so Tabata cardio boxing whether the basic 2:1x7 set or more advanced 3:1x12 set really comes down to controlling ones intensity and the related stress from storming between high and fast to low and slow. The first 30 second of the 2 minute or 1 minute of the 3 minute boxing set needs to be fast and high intensity to release the free fatty acids from the fat cells into the bloodstream, the last 1:30 of the 2 minute or 2 minutes of the 3 minute boxing set needs to be slow and low intensity at that steady state point of cardio to burn that fat for fuel instead of sending it back into the bloodstream and body fat stores or continuing at that maximum intensity that will start burning your valuable muscle cell glycogen not body fat storage. I will go into all this with more detail later, major takeaways for one to remember here is simply it does not matter the kind of punches used like uppercuts, hooks, or jabs, nor does it matter even the kind of cardio from swimming to skating to sprinting, what matters is you go from high to low to no and then just go again until you finish so go hard with this or go home without and see where you end up.

Monday, November 21, 2016

Trump making America great but could it be even better?

The major mainstream media was shocked and awed by the electoral big short position Donald Trump pulled on the political establishment, first within the Republican clique during the primary for the nomination and then within the Democratic machine during the race for the election and finally within the American psyche during the vote for the Presidency, taking a gamble on the entire political market failing to make the gain by strongly betting against that political establishment and its privileged elite of the Beltway that had collateralized and mortgaged the future of America on lended credit owned by the rest of the world. There is no other reason to explain Trump past this very simple narrative the major mainstream media continues to keep as complex as possible so others do not follow suit, if you followed the minor alternative media which can be found mainly on the internet online, it pointed exactly to how America saw itself deeply in the mirror as one failed nation state that just wanted to make itself great again, especially after recent heartfelt promises of hope, change, and progress in the decade or so previously came to naught and never really came true for real people who felt real hurt by the system. A president elected by hope to change the system and progress beyond the financial crisis from within the subprime mortgage lending market he was first elected into, a bright hope that he would bring progressive comprehensive financial reforms that address basic income and wealth inequality focussed on the disappearing middle class working family, massive levels of poverty, and various socioeconomic problems affecting seniors and youth, a hope faded as Barack Hussein Obama II never lived up to such legislative expectation from his electoral promises with even less chance for change if Hillary Rodham Clinton had been elected after the Democrats capitulated their nomination and only real chance for change in Bernie Sanders.

So, now with Trump making America great but could it be even better is the question, as the first casualty in all this American infighting between Blue States versus Red States is bipartisanship once so proudly displayed by the likes of Republican Arizona Senator John Mccain and Democratic Wisconsin Senator Russ Feingold using campaign finance reform as the issue of the day.

Not that President Trump would actually use bipartisanship as Obama at least publically displayed its virtues, instead he moves singlehandedly towards holding those campaign promises he made and seriously act on them within the first one hundred days being a great wall to block illegal or undocumented immigration from south of the border with Mexico, making all global free trade deals America has made internationally fair as well, and looking to never repeat another 9/11 in America, and more importantly for Donald, New York City never ever again by instituting a travel ban from targeted Muslim nations he feels most likely harbours these future terrorists. Bipartisanship would slow all these efforts down with a legislative drag never seen before as not only does members of Congress from both the House and the Senate on the Democratic side dislike Donald, so does many if not the majority of the members from the Republican side of Congress, which is why he and his whole White House administration has an earned paranoid distrust seen never before since the days of Watergate and has many within Washington and without comparing Trump to Nixon with help from the unfriendly and uninviting major mainstream media that looks only to do more harm to his term for the next four years as was given. Ironically, though he looks to keep his divisive election promises he made to his American public that duly elected him President of the United States of America, Donald may end up only getting those four years without the seemingly automatic next four to go simply because unlike Obama who did not live up to his promised expectations yet kept everyone in the political establishment and its privileged elite of the Beltway happy in Washington, Trump may step on the wrong toes on his drive onward and forward to making America great again yet in the end losing a better and more bipartisan one in the process.

Wednesday, November 16, 2016

Ottawa-Vanier gives the Ontario Tories a cup that keeps running over

With such a large Franco-Ontarian contingent and much of Ottawa's francophone population Ottawa-Vanier would be a safe bet for a return to another Liberal like the former Liberal MPP Madeleine Meilleur it looks to replace with Ontario Liberal Party candidate Nathalie Desrosiers, however the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario has been campaigning hard behind its candidate André Marin, running along with him in the byelection are Ontario New Democratic Party candidate Claude Bisson, and the Green Party candidate Raphaël Morin, with Canadian Constituents Stephanie McevoyLibertarian Dean Harris, objectivist Freedom David Mcgruer, perennial Pauper John Turmel, None of the Above Noneof Zabove, Peoples Political Party leader Kevin Clarke, and Stop The New Sex Ed Agenda Elizabeth Deviel Castel amongst the fringe. Usually with byelections one expects the normal 81.412 valid total voters from the 2014 general election to drop by around half, more or less around 48,847 should be par, with the top issue of the byelection being the hydro electricity billion dollar boondoggle and green energy goofup by the Wynne Liberals has been the biggest talk on the street. The Seventeenth of November will be a tough one to call, as the Ontario Tories pulling a parachute with their high profile candidate jumping in from Nepean may hurt their protest vote, however Marin should still gain 36% and win the seat, Desrosiers and the Grits place second with 33 percent of the vote, Bisson and the Neodemos take up third with 30 in percentage, as Morin and the Greens finish with fourth at less than 1%, from the fringe I actually think the fight for fifth starts with the high profile Stop The New Sex Ed Agenda candidate Deviel Castel who will gather a less than 1% of the vote in her fight against government intrusiveness on parental matters, while the best of the rest goes as follows Libertarian Harris sixth, None of the Above Zabove seventh, Constituents Mcevoy eighth, Peoples leader Clarke ninth, Freedom Mcgruer tenth, and Pauper Turmel eleventh.

Ottawa-Vanier gives the Ontario Tories a cup that keeps running over, as the former Ombudsman for Ontario Marin used his clarion call as a watchdog for progressive civil liberty against the Grit star candidate Desrosiers who was once the dean of the civil law section at the University of Ottawa, president of the Law Commission of Canada, and general counsel for the Canadian Civil Liberties Association in her own right, thus a byelection that will be close between these two defenders of democracy.

Repeating the message twice in simultaneous byelections Kathleen Wynne and the Ontario Liberals are slowly feeling the shock of the frog in a pot of water quickly boiling over, as the loud Marin underregulated daycares, beatings in overcrowded jails, and of course the overbilling and alledgedly illegal privatization of Hydro One, it seems that unofficial opposition continues to fight on no matter which file the Ontario Liberals continue to intervene and institute their own rules nor how scared Andrea Horwath and her Ontario New Democrats are to ever try pulling the electoral trigger again. The obvious lesson Progressive Conservative leader Patrick Brown should have learnt here is principled grassroots politics trumps pragmatic astroturfed politics, one cannot fix or specially endorse political race for nomination primaries or general election campaigns for the gain of your own agenda especially if that agenda is diametrically opposed to one espoused by the general membership you are supposed to be leading, nothing wrong in being different but completely remaking and doing over the whole program so it no longer can recognized ideologically by its followers throws ones leadership into question at best and worst chaos and calamity in a time you need to create solidity and stability. The political elite and the main stream media industrial complex establishment still think not just that only they know best, as recently shown in the Trump Clinton United States Presidential Election where political talking heads, pundits, and pollsters got it wrong over and over again, but they even afterwards still refuse to listen, understand, and begin getting the message that we the people want to say to its government and societal institutions.