Friday, May 26, 2017

Conservatives will likely stay Harperite Light with Andrew Scheer

Tons of politicos from all different colours and parties have been asking me what are my thoughts on the federal Conservative Party of Canada leadership race for 2017 and who do I think is going to win it all, pretty hard question to answer when this vote is not even a pure one member one vote styled rather equally weighted by electoral district riding 100 points allocated per. Thus in order to win the leadership race, a candidate had to receive at least 16,901 points being a pure majority of the points gather from the ranked ballot one member one vote basis, so again did not make the guesstimation of the occasion any more easier to get done. But then after striking out Kevin Oleary and then realizing we had to leave him in as he was on the ballot, I went on to add the next lucky thirteen as they appeared on the ballot being Chris Alexander, Maxime Bernier, Steven Blaney, Michael Chong, Kellie Leitch, Pierre Lemieux, Deepak Obhrai, Erin Otoole, Rick Peterson, Lisa Raitt, Andrew Saxton, Andrew Scheer, and Brad Trost, all of whom I will have now heard both at the debate back home in Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound and there at the Toronto Congress Centre in Toronto.

Three major factors become obviously in play throughout the affair, first was whether the federal party wanted to run away from the shadow of their former leader and Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper or emulate him once more which allowed for minor division between Progressive East and Reformed West members and their candidates, second was the new ideology going to remain similar being a balance carefully between fiscal and social conservatism with democratic reform and civil libertarian ideals mixed within or was the populist altright message against political correctness and forced immigration going to be another pillar within that mix, and third was major campaign issues with created splits and crisis such as supply management and traditional marriage created temporary voting blocs for those single issue voters which artificially increased and decreased the numbers for certain teams in the race.

Though Kevin Oleary was on the ballot, I knew he would come out below as he suspended his campaign the other 13 remaining leadership candidates who I list in order lowest to highest to be in the first round were Rick Peterson thirteenth at 0.1%, Andrew Saxton twelfth at 0.2%, Chris Alexander eleventh at 0.3%, Steven Blaney tenth at 0.3%, Deepak Obhrai ninth at 0.5%, Lisa Raitt eighth at 1.5%, Kellie Leitch seventh at 6.5%, Brad Trost sixth at 9%, Erin Otoole fifth at 11%, Pierre Lemieux fourth at 12%, Michael Chong third at 15%, Maxime Bernier second at 19%, and Andrew Scheer first at 25%. Let me explain them all now starting with Peterson to Obhrai as they were all fringe outback players adding up to 1%, Raitt carried some weight for double and a half of that, Leitch still had a huge Trumpesque altright following her around for more than half a decade in percentage, Trost carries that heavy socon burden that comes with about a decade percentage in support, Otoole just for being True Blue Ontario Tory get over a decade in percentage, Lemieux takes the flag, family, and faith crowd for over a decade in percentage too, Chong collects every Progressive Eastern vote available from Ontario to the Atlantic for a decade and a half percent, Bernier too picks up every single civil libertarian vote across the nation for almost two decade percent, and finally Scheer being Harper like as Harper Light from all True Blue Tories get two decades and a half percent from across the nation to make this vote go all the way to about 12. Knock off the last six candidates, Raitt vote goes to Chong for 16.5%+, Leitch vote goes to Bernier for 25.5%+, Trost vote goes to Scheer for 34%+, Otoole vote goes to Bernier for 36.5%+, Lemieux vote goes to Scheer for 46%+, Chong vote goes to Bernier for 51.5+, so theoretically Bernier edges out votes from Scheer but obviously 46 plus 51.5 does not make 100 and I think we are going to see a twelve round plus vote ending in between 45 and 52 for both that could very well become a 50.1% to 49.9% race between Scheer and Bernier with Chong, Lemieux, and Otoole being the kingmakers in the end of this shootout to replace Harper.