Wednesday, July 31, 2013

Status quo will remain but Wynne wont win half

With five byelections on the go in Ontario, with a decision to be made by the end of this week, as usual the same political scientific facts about them play themselves out in front of us in the electoral district ridings of London West,  Windsor--Tecumseh, Etobicoke--Lakeshore, Scarborough--Guildwood and Ottawa South. Those being the usual ones such as these special elections are unpredictable in nature as previous fringe third parties positively know, risky for minority government parties and petty for majority government parties, and of course the people can use them as democratic protest tools or votes to send a message to government via large turnouts as the polls, however usually the people as a whole remain satisfied with the government as is and decide to keep the status quo via small turnouts as the polls. Finally, in the middle of summer vacations, with little free time from both family and friends, voter turnout will be down to a point that can only benefit the incumbent governing party.

Keeping in mind that at the end of the day, these byelections will be meaningless because the government and the free democratic society as a whole it represents only reflects the interests of the majority of its citizens, less so among the youth, those less educated and those in lower income brackets who all vote less.

That all said and despite the conventional logic held above, Ontario Premier and Liberal Party Leader Kathleen Wynne has just one sure victory of those five, as will John Fraser will replace former Premier Dalton Mcguinty as the Liberal MPP in Ottawa South. From there one would think Liberal Mitzie Hunter will ride the Red Rocket in Scarborough--Guildwood over the New Democrats and the former Deputy Mayor of Toronto and friend of Mayor of Toronto Rob Ford Tory Doug Holyday should hold Etobicoke--Lakeshore from the Grits, our battle of Kitchener-Waterloo 2012 seems to be found in London West where Progressive Conservative Ali Chahbar goes hard against New Democrat Peggy Sattler as Liberal Ken Coran disappears and in Windsor--Tecumseh where New Democrat Percy Hatfield seems to have little opposition from either Liberal Jeewen Gill or Progressive Conservative Robert Deverteuil. So one probable, two more possible but nothing else out of five, despite eHealth, Ornge, Mississauga gas plant scandals and Scarborough transit line expansion aside, party faithful amongst the Ontario Grits have to ask themselves is this all renewal or just reruns?